Monday, November 30, 2009

the what if game

(Note up front: this is without question the longest post I've ever written that wasn't a live blog. It was 19 pages in Microsoft Word when I was composing it. Yikes).

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I have finally, after almost a month, and numerous late nights of reading, finished "The Book of Basketball" by the Sports Guy.

And I have to say, as one of the three original NBA die-hards in this town ... it rocks.

But my favorite chapter / section, is chapter four, the "What If's" section.

What if this had happened? What if this hadn't happened?

And so ... today's post is, Kansas City related sports "What If's"?

(Note: this post took me 5 days to write. And I only had 10 "what if's" in it. To do 33 like The Sports Guy does in his book, PLUS redefine the Hall of Fame, PLUS recount "the lost years" of the NBA, PLUS break down every MVP season in the league's history, AND to have the postlogue interview with the greatness that is Villiam Valton ... holy Lord, this book was incredible. A MUST READ for anyone who considers themselves even a casual fan of professional hoops).

10. Of all the "what ifs" about to appear, save for number one, this one intrigues me the most.

As a biased hoops observer, I can make a legitimate argument that for the first half of the decade, the Big XII was the nation's best conference. Or at the very least, the nation's most balanced conference.

From 2000-2004, Big XII teams appeared in 9 Elite 8's (out of 40 spots). They appeared in 5 Final Fours (out of 20 spots). Best of all, a stunning six difference conference teams reached the Elite 8 in that five year stretch. The ACC can brag about its big two, big three ... but no way does the ACC go six deep over a five year stretch. No way. The Big XII did. Iowa State, Oklahoma, Texas, Oklahoma State, and Kansas all made at least one Elite 8 appearance, and all but Iowa State reached at least one Final Four in this five year stretch.

The sixth team to reach an Elite 8 in that five year stretch? "What if" Number 10.

What if MU had beaten Oklahoma in the 2002 West Regional Final? (They lost by 6, 81-75).

Forgot about this golden nugget? A Missouri Tiger team that underachieved all season, somehow put together a late run to steal a 12 seed. The last at-large team in the field. This team was friggin loaded with talent. Clarence Gilbert, Kareem Rush, Rickey Paulding, Keyon Dooling. They blew through Miami (FL) and Ohio State, and survived UCLA, to reach the West Regional Final against an OU team that had just beat them two weeks earlier in the Big XII Tourney final.

That OU team had some talent too, led by Edjuardo Najera and Hollis Price. The Sooners won the Big XII tourney, scored a two seed in the West, and coasted (as they should) to two easy victories. Then they blew out a damned good Arizona team in the Sweet 16 to set up the all-Big XII regional final.

OU wound up winning the rubber match (MU won the regular season battle) by a few points.

But what if MU had won? A bucket here, a bucket there ... what if MU had won?

What we do know is this -- both head coaches were gone within three years of this game. And neither one left with his dignity intact. Both left amid NCAA investigations, rumors of "lack of institutional control", and neither coach will be running a D1 team again in my lifetime. Stunning given how the first few years of the decade played out.

But what if MU had won this game? Would Quin Snyder have felt as compelled as he did to recruit questionable character guys in an attempt to win big? Would Ricky Clemons have ever stepped foot on the MU campus? Remember, MU didn't fall apart overnight. With the core still intact, MU won the Big XII Tourney, scored a six seed, and took eventual Final Four participant Marquette to overtime before falling in the second round in 2003. They opened the 2004 season ranked in the top three. If MU makes the Final Four in 2002, does Quin get a "do-over" for that 2004 season that collapsed under the weight of expectations? Certainly reaching the 2002 Final Four bought Mike Davis an extra year (or two) at Indiana he probably didn't deserve. Would the school's first Final Four head coach have been shown the door as quickly as Quin was when the program started collapsing? Or would he have been given greater leeway?

(My guess? Yes, he would have been given at least one more season than he wound up getting. Although I still think Quin would have recruited and signed Ricky Clemons. Because he was a sleazy coach like that, and sleaze attracts, uuh, sleaze).

And if MU makes that Final Four, how does the perception of the program change? Its not like MU was a pushover the previous couple decades. Norm Stewart usually had a tourney-bound, solid squad to field. But they never reached the Final Four. The glass ceiling was the Elite 8. Norm coached for what, 25, 30 years? And never cracked the glass ceiling. He came close a few times, with some loaded teams in the late 80s, and the perfect run through the Big 8 in 1994 that ended in the Elite 8 against Arizona.

Quin was only in his 3rd season ... and already hit the glass ceiling. If he breaks it, against a conference rival to boot? If Quin can walk in off the street, pick up the pieces of a torn MU program entering the decade (remember, half the fanbase wanted Norm kicked to the curb, the other half was scared they couldn't do better, so were angry at even trying to replace Norm), if he walks in and within three years, posts three NCAA appearances, and a Final Four berth? To put that in perspective, the rebuild Roy did at KU was amazing. (Don't worry ... Roy's departure sorta, kinda, arrives on this countdown later).

Taking over a team on probation, losing every decent player, and having to follow up a national championship head coach? Roy had KU in the Final Four in his third season. If MU wins this game against OU, then Quin Snyder matches the job Roy did. (And I'd argue tops it; KU can recruit based on its name. MU has to recruit based on the person doing the recruiting). Would Quin have become as beloved by the fanbase as Roy was (and in some corners, still is)? Does Quin earn a Roy-like unquestioned status amongst the Tiger faithful?

(I say no; the self-destructive nature in Quin wouldn't allow it. But it is interesting to contemplate).

MU was literally just a bucket here or a free throw there away from the greatest win in program history. And yet you can argue that winning that game would have HURT MU more than losing it did. Because winning that game likely buys Quin more time to self-destruct, likely buys Quin at least 30% of the fanbase who will follow him with unquestioned loyalty because "he did more than any other coach here ever has", and most importantly, when the firing axe finally comes down on Quin ... likely sees Mike Anderson already having left UAB for another program. I argued seven years ago, at the time, that it was the "most crushing defeat in MU history, greater than Tyus Edney's layup, worse than Matt Davison's kick, this was the stomach punch". In hindsight, I couldn't have been more wrong ...

9. Flash back to 1995. MU was coming off an unbeaten Big 8 season that ended in the Elite 8 in hoops, and Oklahoma State reached the Final Four in Seattle that year. Nebraska was on its way to a second straight national championship, and both Kansas and Kansas State fielded top 10 programs that fall. Things were looking good for the conference, and about to look better.

Because the Southwest Conference and the Big 8 were negotiating for a merger.

However, only four Southwest Conference teams were going to join the new conference.

Two of the picks were obvious. You had to take Texas, and you had to take Texas A&M. Texas Tech also made perfect sense to bring along.

Which left one spot to fill.

And leads me into "What If" Number 9.

What if the Big XII had selected TCU instead of Baylor?

I was a freshman at TCU in 1995, and somehow I conned those folks into giving me a degree when my four years were up, so maybe I'm slightly biased here. But to this day, I don't get why the Big XII went with Baylor over TCU.

(Actually, I do -- former Texas governor Ma Richards, who was given way too big a platform in working for the Southwest Conference on this merge, basically threatened to walk out on the merger if her alma mater wasn't taken. Which then, of course, raises the question, why Texas Tech instead of TCU? Anyways).

TCU offered you four things right off the bat Baylor did not:

* a relevant football program.
* a relevant basketball program.
* a campus where being a college kid was smiled upon, not legislated against.
* a school in the sixth largest media market in America.

The first point is kind of moot -- Pat Sullivan was quickly running the program into the ground, culminating in that "classic" 13-10 victory over SMU to end the 1997 season at ... 1-11. (And yes, I was there for every excruciating second of that "classic"). But after Pat was shown the door that winter, TCU hired Dennis Franchione, and then Gary Patterson, and hasn't missed a bowl since.

The second point is also kind of moot -- Billy Tubbs had the program on the rise, even scored a 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament in 1997. But once Tubbs left, the program fell back into dormancy.

The third point, you better believe that matters. Its why I chose TCU over Baylor. Seriously, if you can't spend your college years drinking ridiculous amounts of alcohol, inhaling ridiculous amounts of weed, and rolling over at least a couple times a semester and thinking "what the hell is her name again", then you need to find a better college. Baylor legislates against the fun in life. Boo Baylor. Boo.

(And yet, one of my best buddies went to Baylor, had more fun than a human being should be allowed to have, despite the attempted restrictions, and swears it was the best 5 years of his life. So what do I know).

But in all seriousness, its the final point that matters. Why in the hell did the Big XII walk away from having a school in the Dallas media market?

Even if you argue that school should have been SMU (and that's a legitimate argument in its own right, especially given their academic reputation and the Hunt Family money), why in the hell did the Big XII walk away from having a school in the Dallas media market?

The conference is headquartered in Dallas. They stage the conference tournament there every couple years, and the new Cowboys Stadium will host the Big XII Title Game this fall. So again, the question of the day, is why in the hell did the Big XII walk away from having a school in the Dallas media market?

You look at every other Power Six conference. Even if the school sucks ass, they ALL have at least one team in a top 30 media market --

* Big East: St. Johns (NYC), Villanova (Philly), DePaul (Chicago)
* ACC: Georgia Tech (Atlanta), Miami (Miami)
* SEC: Georgia (Atlanta)
* Big Ten: Northwestern (Chicago)
* Pac 10: UCLA, USC (Los Angeles); Cal, Stanford (Bay Area), Washington (Seattle), Arizona State (Phoenix)

The closest a Big XII school comes to playing in a top 30 media market is Kansas, a 30 minute drive from Kansas City. That, or if traffic on K10 is backed up, you could point out that A&M is 45 minutes from Houston. But either way, that's not good. When it was the Big 8, this was fine. It was a localized conference, with loyal fans devoted to this section of the country. But once you expand to basically spread the conference across the Midwest, from Canada to Mexico, from the Rockies to the Mississippi, don't you need a major media market presence?

(Yes. Yes, you do).

That's why not picking TCU (or SMU) made no sense then. It makes even less sense now, as individual conferences are forming their own networks, are signing exclusive TV contracts. They can do it, because they have a built in major media market into their conference. The Big XII doesn't have a school within 30 minutes of a top 30 market other than Kansas. And having the 27th largest Nielsen market with quad-divided loyalty (between KU, KSU, MU and Nebraska) is nowhere near as important as having an actual member in the 6th largest media market.

8. The funnest year of the decade, for me, was 2003.

KU Football awoke from its usual doormat status, and somehow reached a bowl for the first time since my freshman year in college. The Chiefs opened 9-0, en route to their first divisional title and playoff berth in 6 years.

And the Royals ... well ... "What If" Number 8.

What if the 2003 Royals had held on to win the AL Central?

The Royals opened 9-0, and sat at a ridiculous 17-4 entering May.

And then, the slide began.

And kept going.

And kept going.

Until June 2nd, when the Royals sat at 32-32 entering the first game in Colorado. And we got pounded.

Only ... the game wasn't completed thanks to a rainstorm. Nothing counted.

The Royals rallied, swept the doubleheader, and treaded water for a couple weeks until Fathers Day 2003, arguably my favorite game of the decade. Me, my dad, my brother, and my buddy James went to this one, and sat in old left field GA. I remember this day for five reasons:

1. It was so ridiculously hot, that I didn't even bother to bring a t-shirt in with me. Usually I at least do that. Even if it doesn't stay on for long.
2. They had some overnight campout deal on the field the night before, so the groundscrew was still cleaning up crap barely 30 minutes before first pitch.
3. Jose Lima's first start! I remember asking my dad "What do you want out of him today", and his response was "Less Runs than Innings Pitched". Yeah, you know you've signed a keeper when you're hoping for an ERA somewhere around 9.
4. Barry Bonds' 6th inning home run off Lima. It literally hit the roof of the old right field GA concession stand on the fly. Its the sweetest home run I've ever seen to this day.
5. Mike Sweeney's 0-2 rocket to the left field gap to score Joe Randa to win 5-4.

The Royals took off from that point, moving from a .500 team to a team 7 1/2 games up at the All Star Break. They still led by 3 games entering mid August, when the eventual champion Twins came to town, and took two of three over one of the best weekends of the summer, the "Double Header" Saturday with Royals / Twins and Chiefs / Vikings, and the "Rob and Rany Day at the K" Sunday. (Anytime you can sit in 105 degree heat with two baseball writers like Rob and Rany, you have to do it. Even if the beer you're drinking is literally being sweated out as soon as it goes in).

The last gasp of that Royals team was probably in mid September. In a virtual tie with the Twins and White Sox with 3 weeks to go, they hosted the Diamondbacks in a make-up game. Trailing 3-2 entering the bottom of the 9th, Carlos Beltran led off with a walk.

Then stole second.

Then stole third.

And scored on a sacrifice fly.

Joe Posnanski wrote a great article on this game, and specifically on this play. Of all the amazing things the 2003 season gave us, that play stays burned in my mind, even more so than Tito climbing the fence to haul in a Seattle home run ball. Even more than Ken Harvey's homer to extend the streak to 9-0. Even more than Jimmy Gobble's debut start when he overpowered the Rays in a 2-0 shutout. Even more than Sweeney's Father's Day hit, than the hope that trading for Brian Anderson and Rondell White brought, even more Runelvys Hernandez literally destroying his season and his career by tossing 105 pitches in the ridiculous July heat with a torn rotator cuff to help beat Seattle right after the All Star break.

(As another note: I also remember this season so well for three other reasons:

a. Gregg and I had DirecTV ... which didn't have the failed experiment known as RSTN. So we had to "watch" every game by literally listening to the radio. I always thought that was cool. It was like being back as a 12, 13 year old again, back in the awesome pennant race of 1989, listening on radio to every play.
b. Between Gregg, Jasson, James, my brother, PJ, Chris, Anthony, and work folks, I pretty much went to every game from mid June on. Like being back in college, when the 1998 Rangers pennant run became "emergency expenses" on my dad's credit card for me, Frank, and Mike.
c. This season convinced me and Gregg to buy full season tickets in 2004. Arguably the single biggest mistake of my adult sports fan life. Cleaning out the kitchen before moving out a couple years later, I came across the season ticket book from 2004. The last game either one of us went to? July 26th. Two unused months of tickets. Why you don't buy full season MLB tickets 101 ...)

There were so many ridiculous, amazing moments that summer, that you have to think "What would have happened if the Royals had held on"?

Well ...

My guess is, we'd have lost in 4 at the most to the Yankees. And yet, we had the Yankees number that year, taking 4 of 6, 2 of 3 in each stadium. So who knows? But the bigger point is ...

What would have happened that offseason?

If you break through and win the division, do you then gamble on reclamation projects like Juan Gonzalez and Benito Santiago? Or, as defending division champs with the playoff revenue stream to play with, do you go out and sign legitimate options, like resigning Rondell White?

Or better yet, as defending divisional champs, do you take that added revenue, walk into Scott Boras' office, and lay out the plan for the next 4-5 years as a playoff contender, and offer Carlos Beltran a legitimate, above-board, fair market offer that he at least has to consider signing?

Of course, the Royals didn't win the Central. Beltran was gone within three months of the 2004 season starting, for two serviceable major leaguers (Teahan, Buck), and one pitching flameout (Blake Wood). Gonzalez and Santiago were signed, and promptly bombed. Brian Anderson couldn't locate the strike zone, Jose Lima proved to be a one season fluke, and Mike MacDougal flamed out spectacularly. To say nothing of Angel Berroa aging 55 years overnight.

But for one magical season, it was all right there for the taking. If only the Royals had grabbed it.

7. As most of you who read this site on a regular basis ... or just know me period ... as you are well aware, there is one professional sports team I hate with a f*cking passion. The denver broncos.

I hate them for a lot of reasons. I'm sure some of them are listed elsewhere on this site. I'm sure many more will be posted this week since it is, after all, donkeys week 2009.

But there's one game that stands out to me, and its number seven on the "What If" list.

What if the 2002 Chiefs don't lose to denver in week 7?

Not the one you were expecting, huh? I think most people assumed I was referencing the playoff defeat on my 21st birthday to elway at Arrowhead, a game I (sadly) correctly predicted beforehand that the winner would win the Lombardi Trophy.

No, I'm not reliving that one, partly out of painful memory, but mostly because the better team won. Now excuse me while I go find the HHH Memorial Sledgehammer and beat myself senseless with it over admitting that painful fact.

(steve taking a few minutes to deal with painful loss ...)

(And while dealing with said loss ... that statement is absolute fact. denver was the better team. They dominated both regular season games we played, blowing us out at Real Mile High, and losing on a 54 yard wounded duck of a field goal as time expired, in a game in which the Dick Gannon led Chiefs failed to gain 200 yards of offense. Even the playoff game, denver statistically dominated. Gotta tip the cap to a great team when you see one. Even if they did cheat by circumventing the salary cap to make it happen).

OK, and we're back. The denver game that drives me bonkers, is that 2002 defeat. There is simply no conceivable way we should have lost that game. The Chiefs dominated the stats. They led from (literally) the opening seconds of the game. They were up double digits nearly the entire way. They led 34-27 with 3:52 to go, facing a 4th and 1 at the denver 25.

And in that moment, is the madness, the utter frustration, the insanity, that defined my hatred of Dick Vermeil. The Chiefs defense in 2002 was atrocious. Statistically, it is the worst in NFL history. It even earned its own nickname, the "32 Defense", in honor of its ranking in virtually every measurable statistic. Here you are, 4th and 1, a little under 4 minutes to go. You get the first down, and its ballgame for all intents and purposes. (denver used its final timeout to stop the clock after 3rd down). We had Priest Holmes. Running behind John Tait, Willie Roaf, Will Shields, Casey Weigmann, and Brian Waters. With Tony Richardson blocking. You mean to tell me we can't get a f*cking yard in that spot?

If you convert there, you bleed a MINIMUM of another 1:50 off the clock, down to the two minute warning. That is the ONLY time left that denver could have stopped the clock. What makes more sense to you. What sounds like the smarter, safer, more common sense call to you: try a 43 yard field goal with a 40 plus year old kicker whose range was 40 yards ... or pound Priest Holmes behind that line, with Richardson as well, for 36 inches. What sounds more logical to you?

(Run the damned ball!)

And even if you don't convert the first down ... ok, then what? denver ball at their own 25, instead of at their own 33 after the field goal miss? What difference does 8 yards in starting field position make at that point?

(Run the damned ball!)

Go figure, Vermeil tried the field goal. Go figure, it wasn't even close to being good. (Funny historical note: even the nfl.com Game Recap Play by Play notes that the field goal try was "short". SHORT! From 43 yards out! Just like every damned person in that stadium save for Dick Vermeil knew it would be! Again, why didn't we run the f*cking football!)

Everyone there that sunny October afternoon knows what happened next. denver drove and scored with seconds to spare to force overtime. They won the coin toss. Somehow the Chiefs defense held, but when our offense stalled at midfield, the donkeys blocked the punt, then elam nailed a 26 yard field goal a couple plays later. 37-34 denver.

This loss ... to say it adversely affected me, is an understatement. I didn't make it into work until Wednesday. Let's just say there were a lot of empty liquor bottles in the trash that week. That loss to me, was what the number one "what if" on this list was to Gregg.

(Note: this was during my 6, 7 month period after my unfortunate drinking and driving arrest when, on the strong advise of friends and family, I attempted to quit drinking. Emphasis on the word "attempted". Let's just say, between my genes, my love of vodka, and this defeat, that the liquor bottles started appearing again on a nightly basis in the fridge. Thank you Dick Vermeil! Just kidding, Dick. I don't blame you. For this, anyways.)

(Another note: in case you didn't know beforehand, or didn't just figure it out from the previous couple paragraphs ... you now know why I hate Dick Vermeil with a freaking passion. One decision, in one relatively meaningless regular season game, from 8 years ago, and I refuse to let go. A simple 4th and 1, and I still can't let go. Against any other opponent, I'd probably let it slide after a few cold ones. When it costs us a win against my most hated team, and costs us a playoff berth, I don't let it go. I let it simmer. Until it boils over. Anyways, where was I? Oh yeah).

If the Chiefs win that game, we know the following would have happened:

* The Chiefs would have been the last team in, at 9-7. (The Chiefs had tiebreaker over Cleveland due to head-to-head victory).
* They would have opened at Pittsburgh in the early Sunday slot.
* They would have been the scariest 6 seed in NFL history (up to that point in time).

The Chiefs could score at will, on anybody. They topped 20 points an astonishing 13 times. They topped 30 points a jaw dropping 8 times. They topped 40 points an absolutely logic-defying 4 times. The Steelers were led by a surprisingly effective Tommy Maddux. You mean to tell me the Chiefs can't win a shootout with those guys? The Chiefs had already dropped 40 on Cleveland (actual playoff team), 38 on the defending champion Patriots, 48 on a 9-7 Dolphins team that missed the playoffs on tiebreakers, 34 on a decent Chargers team, and 30 plus on denver twice. Plus the icing on the cake, a 49 point outburst against the defending NFC Champion Rams. The only thing that ever stopped the Chiefs offense that season was the monsoon in Oakland to end the season.

I'm not saying that Chiefs team would have done anything once they got to the playoffs. But it was set up. A shootout at Pittsburgh, last team with the ball wins. A complete contrast in styles in Nashville against the Titans in the second round. And then a potential AFC West showdown for the Lamar Hunt Trophy out in the Bay Area with Sur William Callahan's raiders. Sadly, because of Dick Vermeil's stupid, retarded decision to not go for the jugular and the win, and instead play it safe, we'll never know.

Hey, speaking of dumb decisions by folks making decisions in Jackson County, let's move on to one of the dumbest in recorded human history, by the assclown that currently represents me in Congress ...

6. Flash back to spring of 1997. The Chiefs were coming off their first playoff-less season of the decade. (Keep reading -- that "what if" is coming up). The Royals were well on their way to reinventing their franchise from "model everyone looks up to", to ("major league" groundskeepers voice) "these guys are sh*tty!" status. KU basketball was coming off a 34-1 regular season, only to collapse in the Sweet 16 against Arizona.

And in Fort Worth Texas, this hot-as-hell 20 year old did the unthinkable.

I went to my first NASCAR race, the debut race at TMS.

I had a few buddies who had tickets, they had an extra, so I went along. I had never been to a Cup race before. I have always loved open wheel racing. I was never a fan of NASCAR before this because (a) their cars weren't as neat, (b) their cars weren't as fast, and (c) their fanbase scared the sh*t out of me.

Still, I'm willing to try anything once for the most part, so on a bright hot sunny Sunday in late April, it was off for my first Cup experience.

And I loved every effing second of it.

From the second you pull into the grass lots, see 200,000 plus people, all flying flags, drinkin' beer, tossing washers, blaring the stereo, well, that's my kind of people! That's me at Arrowhead! And not only are you close to the action, they let you bring your own booze in? Are you kidding me? How much sweeter can it get? And once the race started, turn one, lap one, this 24 car went flying into the wall, and the place just erupted. I had no idea then who was in said 24 car painted like a friggin rainbow, but I knew this much -- if 200,000 plus people hate someone that much, and express their hatred so openly, I want in on the fun!

I say this, because that spring, the governing body of NASCAR decided it was time to build a track in the Midwest. They approached KCMO's "honorable" mayor at the time, the Rev. Emanuel Cleaver, and his braintrust with a proposition: if Kansas City, Missouri and/or Jackson County would build a track in eastern Jackson County, they would guarantee a yearly Cup race starting in 2001.

And Cleaver passed. Meanwhile, across the state line, the single smartest leader this region has had in three decades, the awesome Carol Marinovich, immediately stepped in and agreed to spend the STAR bonds on the project.

The KC region has never been the same since.

So "What If" number six is, what if Mayor Cleaver agrees to build the track in eastern Jackson County?

To be fair to Mr. Cleaver, the area that NASCAR was targeting was the corner of 470 and "The Dred" (aka I-70). Growth slowly yet surely has happened there on its own, with a decent shopping complex arising on the east side, a new indoor arena arising on the north side, and Bass Pro Shops going in on the west side. But that development is nothing, absolutely nothing, compared to what Mayor Marinovich wound up with.

Mayor Cleaver's decision to punt on the new track, screwed Jackson County's taxrolls from here to eternity. (Or at least until a new track needs to be built in what, 50 years? 60 years? These things tend to last for awhile). The Legends development that literally saved Wyandotte County as a viable place to live, would instead be in Missouri. The tourism that KCK attracts two (and soon to be three) race weekends every year, would be on the Missouri side. All the tax benefits, from merchandise sales, hotel fees, liquor sales, you name it, would be in KCMO's coffers. Not KCK's. That Power and Light District, the Sprint Centre, the downtown redevelopment that is literally hemorraging money? Wouldn't be such an issue.

And maybe, just maybe, with that one bold stroke of leadership, of seeing the future (aka the expansion of motorsports from a southern curiousity to mainstream popularity), the current debacle down the street from me would be seeing the Wizards stadium being erected, instead of being a hole in the ground, because developers could rest assured that the city had a rock solid track record of seeing development through to the finish.

Instead, its all KCK's gain. All because Manny Cleaver decided ... what, exactly? Was worth spending the bond money on? He really did nothing in his tenure except flush money down the toilet known as Kemper Arena on stupid renovations that everyone knew wasn't enough to keep the NCAA and the Big XII here. Needless to say, Manny Cleaver is not one of my favorite people. Yet somehow, we keep electing this idiot every two years to represent us in Washington. It's truly mind boggling.

But not as mind boggling as Manny Cleaver punting on NASCAR. KCK's public officials are still laughing their ass off over that decision ...

5. Of course, giving Manny Cleaver a run for his money in the "single most retarded decision of my lifetime" category, is former Kansas football head coach Terry Allen. Which is the number five "What If".

What if Terry Allen wasn't mentally challenged, and had offered Darren Sproles the scholarship he so desperately wanted?

I'm not spending a lot of time on this. The entire Terry Allen era should just be purged from the history books, it was that bad. Six inept years of football. 0-6 vs KSU. 0-6 vs Nebraska. 1-5 vs Missouri. Trust me, I sat through most of it. I was "privileged" to witness a 63-0 homecoming defeat to KSU that pretty much led to near riot-like conditions in Memorial Stadium. (And yet somehow, Allen kept his job for another year and a half after this abortion of a performance! How! How do you lose by 9 touchdowns to a hated rival, AT HOME, and keep your job for another 16 months? Amazing. Who says Bob Frederick didn't care about any sport other than basketball!)

But the biggest sin of them all ... Terry Allen decided he didn't want Darren Sproles.

Sproles, of course, signed with K State instead. Three Big XII Title Games and a Big XII championship later, I'd say Bill Snyder made the right call to offer the kid from Olathe a scholarship.

But never forget, Sproles wanted to play at Kansas. And Terry Allen said no.

On second thought, Sproles might have saved Terry Allen's job. Probably best to just move on from this one before contemplating that possibility makes me want to bash my head into the wall.

4. Speaking of great "What Ifs" in Kansas history ...

What if Mikey Lee's desperation three as time expired went in, instead of being blocked by Hakim Warrick, in the 2003 National Championship game?

Let me say up front, I think Roy was leaving no matter what. Which is why I picked this one as the KU hoops "What If".

Because if Mikey Lee's shot goes in, if somehow KU rallies from down 20 plus to force overtime, and goes on to win that game (which given the way momentum was going, would have happened), if that shot goes in, does anyone at KU hold nearly the level of hatred towards Roy that wound up occurring?

If that shot goes in, doesn't Roy accomplish in his 14 years at the school EVERYTHING he set out to do? Restore the program to national prominence. (check). Do it in a respectable, NCAA compliant manner. (check). Regularly win conference titles. (check). Regularly score top 4 seeds in the tournament. (check). Never lose in the first round, go a perfect 13 for 13. (check).

Five Final Fours in 14 years. (check). Two national title game appearances. (check).

And if that shot goes in ...

Win a national championship.

(check).

If all that occurs, and THEN Roy leaves, does anyone fault him? Does anyone blame him? Do we still get the "I don't give a sh*t about North Carolina" comment he delivered to Erin Andrews? (God I hope so).

Does the "inferiority complex", for lack of a better way to put it, that set in after the two straight first round defeats a few years later, as UNC goes on to give Roy his first national title, does that set in? Or instead, does KU fan revel in Roy achieving his sport's greatest achievement?

Or the famous showdown, throwdown, (don fambrough voice) hoe-down in 2008, the KU / UNC national semifinal, is that nearly the hate-fest, the pure adrenaline rush, that it wound up becoming? Or would it be like when KU would face UNC in the Roy era, the "we're just here to enjoy watching a couple Kansas guys go at it" feeling that was there when Roy faced off against Dean?

Guess we'll never know.

(For what its worth ... I think KU fans would still be agitated, but Roy would be held in much higher esteem than he is. To his eternal credit, the pure class Roy showed after that 2008 defeat, showing up for the national title game and basically telling his employer and his clothing sponsors "screw it, I'm wearing a Jayhawk that is visible for the world to see", that moment won him back into my good graces. Seeing the pure joy and happiness he felt when KU won that game, erased 5 years of hatred for me. But if Mikey Lee's shot goes in, do I ever feel the hatred and anger? Honestly? Probably not. You have to go where your heart is. As an adopted Texan that wants to move back, I get why Roy left. I just think it would have been much less messy if that Lee shot falls).

3. Well, I guess at some point we have to deal with THE Chiefs quarterback controversy of the 1990s. So let's haul out the "What If" wheel for number three.

What if ...

Rich Gannon ...

never replaced ...

Steve Bono with four games to play in 1996.

Ha! Gotcha! Again, I'm guessing everyone expected this to be the Gannon / Grbac debate of 1997 and 1998 (and beyond).

Uuh, no.

Because if THIS QB debate doesn't happen, the other one doesn't.

To recap: the 1996 Chiefs are 8-4 following a humiliating home loss to the Chargers. The offense laid the proverbial lingering fart that day. The final was 28-14 but it wasn't even remotely that close (the Chiefs got two garbage time touchdowns).

However, at 8-4, still solidly in line for a wildcard berth, and still only a game behind denver in the division ... Marty decided it was time for a change at quarterback. Steve Bono was benched for the Thanksgiving game at Detroit.

Rich Gannon was installed as the starter.

For me, the move "paid off" -- I bet my dad $200 worth of Christmas presents that the Chiefs would miss the playoffs. I had zero doubt this move would blow up in our face. And it did, as Dick Gannon beat Detroit, but got blown out in oakland, then left the Colts game (that ultimately decided the final AFC wildcard berth) with an injury. Left with no choice, Marty turned back to Bono ... only Bono (somewhat) defensibly had quit on the team, and it showed, as the Chiefs choked away the Colts game, and got ass-whipped in Buffalo to end the season at 9-7 and out of the playoffs.

So what if Bono had never been yanked?

For starters, I believe the Chiefs at least would have made the playoffs. Bono would have won in Detroit (like Gannon did), and he would have beaten oakland to get us in at 10-6 at the worst. Not sure the Chiefs would have done anything once they got there (would have likely opened at Pittsburgh against the defending AFC Champs), but then again, the entire 1996 postseason was upside-down wacky. (The 6th seeded, second year Jaguars reached the AFC Title Game; the second year Panthers reached the NFC Title Game; the Dallas and Buffalo dynasties in essence died in quick eliminations).

But more to the point -- do the Chiefs go out and target Elvis Grbac in free agency?

If Gannon doesn't play, he remains the unknown. As it was, because he took the field, Marty and Carl had zero faith in either Bono (about to retire) or Gannon as the QB option. So we signed Grbac to man the team.

If Bono stays in, do we trust Gannon from day one in 1997 and avoid Grbac altogether? And instead spend the free agent / salary cap money to keep Neil Smith and/or Mark Collins?

(My guess? We still target a QB in free agency, but its not priority one. Priority one becomes retaining Neil Smith, then we go out and sign a competent veteran. Someone like Doug Flutie (who Buffalo signed) or Vinny Testaverde (who the Jets signed) or even try to coax one more year out of Bono, and let them battle Gannon for the job in camp. But again, that's just a guess).

(Also, for what its worth ... I argued all offseason that Marty should be fired for the collapse, and his handling of the QB situation. To use a historical analogy here, the switch from Bono to Gannon, was Marty's March on Moscow. Just like the Russian Invasion ultimately defeated Napoleon, even though it took three more years for it to finally end at Waterloo, this was Marty's March on Moscow. From this point on, it was only a matter of time until the end arrived. I'd say Marty's Waterloo was the Monday Night Meltdown, but I think every Chiefs fan already knew that).

2. Aah, the final two.

OK, really, just number two -- number one on the "What If" list I have argued for a decade and counting, and will attempt to coherently lay out in a few more paragraphs.

But number two ... well, it was tough to pick.

Among the moments I considered:

* What if the Strike of 1994 was settled in time to finish a legitimate season?
* What if Aaron Miles doesn't foul out to start overtime against Georgia Tech in the 2004 Elite 8?
* What if Todd Reesing leads a final scoring drive to force overtime against Missouri in 2007?
* What if John Mackovic wasn't fired after the 1986 season?
* What if KSU doesn't blow a 17 point lead to Texas A&M in the 1998 Big XII Title Game?

But number two, quite honestly, is what killed college football as it existed for people my age in these parts.

What if Matt Davison's reception of the kicked pass against Missouri in 1997 falls incomplete?

(Or, more accurately, what if the officiating crew in Columbia that day had ruled that as an illegal forward pass?)

It was a fourth and goal play, Missouri up 31-24 against an undefeated number one ranked Nebraska team. The pass, of course, helped Nebraska survive the upstart Tigers, and win a 3rd national title in four years.

But what if the pass falls incomplete? What if the refs make the right call?

We know two things that would have happened if that had occurred:

1. An undefeated Michigan team wins an undisputed national championship.
2. The 1998 Cornhuskers would still have struggled, given the departing talent and the rise of Kansas State.

What we don't know ... is who would have coached Nebraska in 1998.

Would Dr. Tom have returned without that final championship? Would Frank Solich have ever ascended to the throne? And even if he had ... would Solich have been given a far more lenient grace period than he got if he doesn't replace a coach coming off a national championship, and three in four years?

Even more to the point, if Solich gets said grace period ... does the "Surrender" Steve Pederson era occur?

(Note: I'm not going to argue "Sur" William Callahan was a great coach. He's not. But Bill Callahan is a decent coach that can win in the right situation. Sorry, but you don't make a Super Bowl as a head coach unless you have some competence. Ditto make a Big XII Title game -- sorry Hawks Fans, but even "Sur" William made one. Pinkle's made two. Gary Barnett made three. Mangino's made zero. Remember that when he's fired this week.

"Surrender" Steve, on the other hand, might be the single biggest asshole to run an athletic department in this decade. Even bigger than you, Lew Perkins. You've whizzed on every tradition and everything good and decent about Hawks athletics, but at least your teams win. "Surrender" Steve never had that going for him. Well, until Jamie Dixon (who he didn't hire) and Dave Wannstedt (who he didn't hire) made his new job at Pitt respectable. Someday, someone needs to write a book on just how piss poor a job "Surrender" Steve did in Lincoln. You could write like 9,000 pages, and STILL have another 9,000 pages of material to cite, let alone comment about. Wait, where was I going with this? Oh yeah, the destruction of Nebraska football thanks to the golden toe reception by Matt Davison).

I argued in "What If" number 10 that MU not winning in the Elite 8 against OU was the best thing that could have happened. A victory in that spot would have been far worse than the defeat was in the hindsight of history. Well, conversely, can't you argue in the hindsight of history that Davison's kicked pass reception was the worst thing to happen to Nebraska football in 12 years? (Save for "Surrender" Steve Pederson, of course. Again, there are not enough words that can possibly be thought, let alone written, by mankind to describe the abortion that his reign of error at Nebraska was).

If Davison doesn't catch that pass, if the refs rule it an illegal forward pass, if anything happens to alter that ... well, that's one for the What If's Hall of Fame.

(For what its worth: I still think Dr. Tom retires after that 1997 season. But Solich definitely gets a greater grace period. I also don't think Osborne goes into politics, he stays closer to the program. And the entire "Surrender" Steve era is avoided. Thankfully, Bo Pelini and Dr. Tom are restoring Nebraska to what it used to be. And I mean that word, "thankfully". Nebraska football as we knew it prior to the "Surrender" Steve years is everything every single football program in America should aspire to be. Welcome back, Black Shirts. Welcome back, Power I. Welcome back, having a Big Kid on the Block to knock off ...)

Which leads us to number one ...

1. What if Dick Gannon doesn't get a fifth down against the Chiefs in the Y2K bowl?

I don't even know where to begin on this one.

Its always been my greatest "What If", pretty much since the day it happened. (January 2, 2000).

Chiefs lead 38-31, just about two minutes to go. The raiders have a 3rd and 17 at the Chiefs 31. There is an illegal formation penalty on oakland that is DECLINDED by Kansas City AFTER the raiders run a 3rd down play. It should have been 4th and 17. Instead, the refs allow oakland to replay the down. Incomplete. Now it is 5th and 17 ... only the refs are treating it as 4th and 17. And go figure, Dick Gannon hits tim brown in the end zone. Tie game.

If the Chiefs win this game, as they should have after the 4th down incompletion, we know the following three things would have happened:

1. The Chiefs win the AFC West at 10-6.
2. We would have hosted Miami in the late Sunday timeslot.
3. We would have DESTROYED the Dolphins, who lost 5 of 6 to "qualify" for the playoffs, needed overtime to beat a Seahawks team that also lost 5 of 6 to "qualify" for the playoffs, then lost 66-3 to Jacksonville in the divisional round (still the largest postseason margin of defeat ever).

So ... based on this, let's play one more scenario out, ok? Since its the "What If" column, after all.

(That, and if you're still reading, you're gonna love where I'm going with this, I think).

Assuming all else stays the same (aka, same playoff games, matchups, outcomes occur, save for Chiefs), the Titans go into Jacksonville and beat the Jaguars. The Chiefs go into Indy, to face the Jim Mora Curse against a team we should have beaten in the regular season (we lost 28-23 on a late touchdown). Again, following the logic that assumption claims to be, give the Chiefs a win somehow in this spot against the snakebitten Mora. (Tennessee won in this spot 20-17 before rolling Jacksonville the next week).

That sets up your AFC Title Game on Sunday, January 23, 2000. Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs.

My ultimate dream come true. The Chiefs, at home, playing to reach the Super Bowl.

But even better ... anyone remember what the weather was like that Sunday?

I know, its a decade ago. Tough to recall. I'll give you a few minutes to Google the results, or search the deep archives of your brain to recall.

(playing "Jeopardy" music ...)

Time.

Cold. Bitterly cold, in the high 20s in actual temp but low single digits for the windchill. Oh, and it was sleeting, snowing, and generally miserable. How do I know this like it happened yesterday?

Because of what would NOT have happened if the Chiefs were playing at home that day to advance to the Super Bowl.

Derrick Thomas doesn't get behind the wheel of his SUV on the way to the airport, and wreck out on a sheet of ice, and ultimately pass away a couple weeks later after being paralyzed from the neck down.

You want to argue about crushing defeats, gut-punch losses? What's bigger than the Y2K Bowl? If the Chiefs win that game, you can LEGITIMATELY argue they not only host the AFC Title Game, not only potentially reach the Super Bowl to face our cross-state rivals that we've pole-axed three straight regular season meetings and counting (including the following season, dropping 54 on them at Arrowhead) ... "The Franchise" is still alive today.

I'm not gonna lie -- since this is my number one "What If" in sports, I've thought about this a lot. It pains me still (obviously).

So, the Final "What If". What if the Chiefs win that game, the Y2K bowl? The Chiefs win the division. They likely host the AFC Title game. Derrick Thomas likely lives to play at least one more season, and hopefully (finally) reach the Super Bowl, the "achievement" he never had that probably cost him four years of Hall of Fame eligibility.

And the other great "What If" of the 1999 season never has to be answered. What If Carl realized Gun was in over his head, and pulled the plug after year one ...

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week twelve picks

The Statisticals. Last Week SU: 8-6-0. Season to Date SU: 98-62-1. Last Week ATS: 7-7-0. Season to Date ATS: 75-80-6. Last Week Upset / ...